Jung Ho Kang homers against the Cardinals in May 2015 at PNC Park. (Peter Diana/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

The most anticipated games of the 2016 season

By Bill Brink

vs Cardinals

Sunday, Tuesday-Wednesday, April 3-6

PNC Park

At Stake

The Pirates open the season against the only team to win more games than they did last year and a team they will have to beat if they hope to avoid a fourth consecutive wild-card game. The Cardinals will have Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday and Matt Adams healthy again, while the Pirates might be without Jung Ho Kang as he finishes rehabilitating a knee injury.

Key Matchups

The Pirates’ new rotation against a patient and potent Cardinals lineup. This will be the first test of the Pirates’ rotation, which now includes Jon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong. This series also will pit the National League’s two best bullpens from 2015 against each other: The Pirates led the NL with a 2.67 ERA, while Cardinals relievers had a 2.82 ERA.

Last Season

The series was nearly even. The Pirates went 9-10 against St. Louis and scored 79 runs in those games to the Cardinals’ 76. The Cardinals swept the Pirates in early May at Busch Stadium with three walk-off victories, but the Pirates took three out of four at PNC Park before the All-Star break, with the final two victories coming on extra-inning walk-off hits.

****

@ Diamondbacks

Friday-Sunday, April 22-24

Chase Field

At Stake

This series is sandwiched in the middle of a 10-game road trip out west. The Diamondbacks, who scored the second-most runs per game in the NL last season, upgraded their pitching staff by trading for Shelby Miller and signing Zack Greinke. They still have issues — Yasmany Tomas might have to play defense, and neither Nick Ahmed nor Jean Segura provides much offense at shortstop — but that duo atop the rotation, plus two-way contributions from Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, make them tough to deal with in any given series.

Key Matchups

The Pirates are familiar with Miller from his Cardinals days, and did well against him: He has a 4.29 career ERA in 50 1⁄3 innings against the Pirates in his career. The Pirates have hit Greinke well, too. (he has a 5.04 ERA against them), but most of the damage came before 2013, and he has faced them only four times in the past three seasons.

Last Season

The Pirates went 5-1 against the Diamondbacks and held them to 15 runs in those six games. In their series sweep at Chase Field last year, the Pirates held them to two combined runs in three games. They also took a 15th-inning, walk-off victory on Aug. 18 thanks to Pedro Florimon’s triple.

****

vs Cubs

Monday-Wednesday, May 2-4

PNC Park

At Stake

This is the first meeting between the teams since Jake Arrieta’s shutout eliminated the Pirates from the playoffs. The Cubs took a strong foundation — of Arrieta, Jon Lester, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell and Jorge Soler — and fortified it, adding Jason Heyward, John Lackey and Ben Zobrist. After winning no more than 75 games for five seasons, they won 97 last year, and they likely aren’t going anywhere.

Key Matchups

Getting through the 2-3-4 hitters in the order, which is often composed of the left-right-left minefield of Schwarber-Bryant-Rizzo, challenges every opposing pitcher. But the Pirates have the speed to take advantage of a shared weakness of Lester and Arrieta. Neither one holds runners very well, and Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco and Andrew McCutchen can cause problems on the bases.

Last Season

The Pirates went 8-11 against the Cubs. Losing three out of four games against Chicago in mid-September hurt the Pirates’ chances of catching the Cardinals and possibly avoiding the wild-card game. In that wild-card game against the Cubs at PNC Park, Arrieta struck out 11 in a five-hit shutout, and Schwarber and Dexter Fowler homered.

 

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****

 

vs Mets

Monday-Wednesday, June 6-8

PNC Park

At Stake

Neil Walker will play against the Pirates, the organization that drafted him out of Pine-Richland High School in the first round in 2004, for the first time. The Pirates traded Walker, who was entering his final year of team control, to the Mets for Jon Niese. The Pirates and Walker could not agree on a long-term contract extension, and the Pirates wanted something in return rather than paying Walker about $10 million and recouping only a draft pick if he left in free agency.

Key Matchups

The Mets might have the best pitching staff in baseball. Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz showed the league what they could do last year. Zack Wheeler, who missed all of 2015 because of Tommy John ligament replacement surgery, should join them, and the indefatigable Bartolo Colon is back for another season; he’ll be 43 by the time this series starts.

Last Season

The Pirates swept two series against the Mets, and the second streak, from Aug. 14-16, broke the Mets’ run of 11 victories in 13 games that coincided with the acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes at the trade deadline. Cespedes re-signed in New York this winter.

****

@ Brewers

Friday-Sunday, July 29-31

PNC Park

At Stake

The Brewers won 30 fewer games than the Pirates last season and still took 10 of 19 games against the Pirates head-to-head. The Pirates can blame their performance at Miller Park, perennially a mystifying haunted house in which the Pirates went 2-7 last season and were swept twice. They visit Milwaukee for the first time during this series, which finishes one day before the non-waiver trade deadline.

Key Matchups

The Brewers will roll out a new lineup this season. Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy and Scooter Gennett remain, but that’s about it. They traded Adam Lind, Jean Segura, Khris Davis, Mike Fiers, Francisco Rodriguez and Carlos Gomez. Shortstop Orlando Arcia, the organization’s top prospect, might be in the majors by this point, and they return Wily Peralta, Jimmy Nelson, Matt Garza and Taylor Jungmann to their rotation.

Last Season

The Pirates lost three in a row at Miller Park right after the All-Star break, scoring one, five and one runs in those games. They lost another three-game series in early September, with Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano pitching in losing efforts.

****

vs Cubs, @ Cardinals

Monday-Sunday, Sept. 26 - Oct. 2

PNC Park, Busch Stadium

At Stake

The Pirates must go through their toughest division rivals and two of the best teams in the NL for seven games in the final week of the season, when the three of them likely will be competing for a division title, a wild-card spot and or home-field advantage in the wild-card game. They have four games against the Cubs before traveling to St. Louis for the final three games of the regular season.

Key Matchups

These games will be played with expanded rosters, meaning single-batter relievers, pinch hitters and base-stealing specialists will play a role. This pits the managers — Clint Hurdle, Joe Maddon and Mike Matheny — against each other, as well as each organization’s advance scouts. They are the ones who, with everyone having almost a full season of data on everyone else, must find the smallest exploitable tendency, and learn how the opposing managers use their expanded rosters.

Last Season

The Pirates played the Cubs and Cardinals in consecutive series from Sept. 25-30 and split the six games. They held off the Cubs and earned home-field advantage in the wild-card game, but could not catch the Cardinals, who clinched the division title at PNC Park.

Web Design Zack Tanner

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